Syrian troops have entered the strategic town of Qusayr, the capital of the province of Homs in Syria. Qusayr is an important location because with its recapture, the rest of Homs will fall as well. Homs provides a northern link with the Lebanese city of Tripoli and Turkey. If Homs falls, the rebel armies’ supply routes will be affected and they will be severely weakened. You can read details on this here. With the U.S. unable to intervene militarily and with Israel not daring to do so without big brother’s help, the situation in Syria is turning against the rebels. One of the biggest losers here will be Turkey, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was dreaming of an Ottoman resurgence. He is already facing stiff opposition in Turkey, with protesters opposed to his misadventures clashing with police in Istanbul and other locations. He will likely try to throw his foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu under the bus to deflect he political fall out from his little foreign policy stunt. Ahmet Davutoglu is widely seen as the Paul Wolfowitz of Turkey’s foray into Syria.
Another big loser will be Qatar, which had dreamed of taking on and replacing Saudi Arabia as the main broker of terrorism in the region. Iran has very cleverly negotiated with an increasingly chastened Saudi Arabia behind the scenes while shutting out Qatar. This severely weakens Qatar and brings an end to its little fitna adventure. Saudi Arabia, according to most reports, seems to be realizing that it cannot win in Syria and is looking to come up with some kind of solution that will save its face.
Israel, as has been the pattern in the past starting with its humiliating defeat in 2006, is completely screwed. It had been delighted and celebrated in private at the thought of Assad falling and Syria being a chaotic mess unable to threaten it any longer. Now, it faces the prospect of not only a consolidated Syria under the leadership of a very angry Assad, but more advanced weapons in the hands of Hizbollah.
History tells us that when the situation gets desperate, and when Israel feels it can, it takes drastic military action to try and salvage a bad situation. Israel is like a heroin addict that can’t stop. However, as Ibrahim Al-Amin very aptly points out, Israel would be making a big mistake if it acts on any such notion.
The biggest winner here is the Muslim Ummah. With American/Israeli/Saudi/Qatar/Turkish attempts to create a rift between various Muslim groups failing, and with the defeat of Al Qaeda in Syria, Sunni-Shi’i unity against imperialism/Zionism is further strengthened.